iGold

The gold price has just broken out to new all-time record highs. Not a single person who has ever purchased gold in the history of human civilization has ever lost money on their purchase (if they held through today).

One would think that investors would therefore feel positive about the gold price today.

Yet when we check sentiment indicators – no one seems to care.

This backdrop of record high prices amidst indifferent sentiment is the most bullish setup that current investors could possibly ask for.

Higher prices lie ahead – this is our conclusion. Hang on to find out why.

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Gold mining companies are historically undervalued compared to gold itself. While there are never any guarantees in the investment world, should gold indeed break out to new all-time highs in 2024, the potential exists for a tremendous revaluation higher for the gold mining companies, with gains vastly above and beyond those for gold itself. In this article, we will highlight the nature of the mining sector undervaluation, examine some of its causes, and look for upside potential should in fact the upward thesis play out.

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Following Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, the gold market is at a make-or-break moment: if key support at $1,885 can hold over the coming weeks, gold should be set to break to new all-time highs later this year or early 2024. However, if this key support fails, gold will likely not be breaking out until 2025 in the best case scenario. In a worst case scenario, a failure at $1,885 would imply that a long-term top is already in place for the sector.

Following a long-term top, years or even decades of lower gold prices would manifest. It is thus imperative for investors to follow these significant trends that are now being tested.

Let us examine the key support areas to define these tests in the gold market.

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How does gold perform during stock market crashes?

Gold has long been viewed as the “safe-haven asset” – one that can protect investors against the ravages of stock market crashes.

But does gold’s safe-haven reputation still hold up? Can gold actually protect your portfolio from a tumbling stock market? We turned to the data for an answer.

The above analysis shows the 10 biggest declines in the S&P 500 since 1970 and compares them with gold price movements during the same time. We used nominal data from Macrotrends and the World Gold Council.

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There is an ominous signal within the precious metals complex which warns that gold may form a significant multi-year top within the next 12 – 18 months. This does not mean one should abandon the sector altogether, as holding some gold is always prudent as an emergency hedge or portfolio insurance. However, the topping signal does suggest that investors should consider ways to mitigate downside risk going forward, as a decline of hundreds of dollars per ounce or more should be in store for mid-decade and beyond.

In the following article, we will discuss the negative signal now appearing and highlight ways to mitigate downside risk as an investor.

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Silver has just witnessed a rare false breakout. A false breakout is when a market overcomes a defined level of selling pressure, only to fail to hold above that level following a period of consolidation. The result after a false breakout is often lower prices; however, context is key, as the market should only be expected to fall to the next visible support level.

In this article we will highlight silver’s recent false breakout, the expected support level it should decline toward, and the price trajectory pending following the summer low.

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Following Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting and ¼ point interest rate hike, gold prices reached a new all-time record high: $2,079 in the spot market. This eclipses the previous record of $2,074 set in 2020 by $5 per ounce. While mainstream observers may not be paying attention to the message of the gold market, this new all-time high is a prelude for significantly higher prices to come. Gold is speaking loud and clear: there is trouble in the global economy.

Investors should be finalizing their precious metals portfolios now, because once gold has broken out to record territory, it will be too late to prudently enter the market. Investors seeking leverage to the gold price over the coming year should consider gold mining companies, which are significantly undervalued versus the metal itself.

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Gold is on the verge of new all-time highs. The metal of kings has already broken out to new all-time highs in many world currencies – the last yet most important will be gold as priced in US dollars.

On the heels of the 0.25% interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, yet amidst clear signals that the central bank is ready to print new money to support the financial system after the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, gold rose $30 or 1.5% to close at $1,970 per ounce in the spot market on Wednesday.

Let us observe gold as priced in several world currencies, so that we may gain a glimpse of what is in store for gold in US dollars over the months ahead.

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The silver price chart is as constructive as we could ask for in expectation of a rapid price appreciation starting in late-2023 and lasting through 2025. Upon a triggering of the current trading pattern, silver will target a price zone of $44 – $50 per ounce. Investors should use any price weakness over the coming months in either silver or high-quality silver miners to prepare for a rapid price appreciation starting later this year.

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Gold has staged an impressive recovery from its Q4 2022 lows of $1,615 per ounce: the precious metal is trading at $1,860, or 15.2% higher, as this article is going to press in early January. So impressive is the recovery that it has negated a bear-market signal which appeared last August, and instead flipped the 2023 – 2024 expectation decidedly higher. In this article, we will highlight the technical reversal which gold has registered, and discuss our forecast for gold in 2023.

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Gold and silver are in bear markets.

Why? The market-perceived reaction by the Federal Reserve to quash inflation by raising interest rates.

Whether or not the Fed is ever successful at bringing inflation down is immaterial – the market believes that the Fed will be successful, and the market is selling gold as a result. Those who disagree with the price action of the market itself will do so at their own peril over the coming years.

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The gold to silver ratio still suggests that gold will outperform silver over the coming months. Following the higher target for the ratio an important inflection point will materialize, which will represent the chance for silver to outperform gold once again. Until that time, we suggest that investors favor gold over silver for relative outperformance, and should wait for a major opportunity for silver to outperform gold again starting in 2023.

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What will be gold’s price target once it finally breaks above the 2020 – present resistance zone of $2,070 – $2,074?

In this instance, we will have a clear target calculation of $2,471 per ounce (green callout), which is defined as equal to the amplitude of the entire preceding consolidation ($397 per ounce), added onto the breakout point of $2,074.

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We have reason to believe that bitcoin and cryptocurrency investors are about to shift their investment strategy toward the precious metals, and that change should cause a notable influx of capital into the gold and silver sectors.

The trend in the ratio between bitcoin and gold has been rising steadily in bitcoin’s favor over the last 8 years – and it appears to be ready to break down in favor of gold again. As cryptocurrencies may be seen as competing “anti-fiat” alternatives to precious metals, this shift may represent an important current for the metals market.

In this article we will discuss the technical and fundamental setup which may cause cryptocurrency investors to soon become precious metals investors.

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Gold may be set for a further pullback before a resumption of the bull market is ready. Traders should position for short-term weakness, yet investors should use the dip as a final buying opportunity before higher prices.

Our most significant clue that a pullback may be due for bullion itself comes from the gold mining complex.

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In the wake of defensive buying following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, silver has just triggered a key technical level which now points to higher prices. In this article we will detail the expected moves for silver, referring to the following chart.

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One of the key ratios for precious metals investors to understand is the Dow to gold ratio. The Dow to gold ratio asks: “How many ounces of gold does it take to purchase one share in each company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average?” The higher the ratio, the stronger Dow stocks are performing relative to gold. The lower the ratio, the stronger gold is performing relative to the Dow.

In other words, the Dow to gold ratio measures the relative worth of mainstream stocks versus gold, the age-old store of wealth.

Presently the ratio stands at 19 to 1, with the Dow at 34160 and gold at $1,800 per ounce. What is coming next for the ratio? Will gold increase or decrease compared to mainstream stocks?

We have strong reason to believe that a significant move lower in the ratio is due ahead. In other words, gold should be gaining value relative to the Dow, and quite soon.

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Silver continues to wind and grind its way toward a major multi-year low. The chart pattern is increasingly clear for those with the proper perspective. Unfortunately, over the short-run, silver is doing what it tends to do best: frustrate the majority of investors into abandoning the sector, just at the wrong moment.

As in the other major lows which have occurred over the subsequent decade, many will be caught unprepared for the next wave of the advance when it occurs, due to the human tendency to only follow markets which are moving sharply higher. In reality, the best time to be following and investing in a market is when it is grinding into a support zone, so as to be positioned when the next wave manifests.

This is exactly where the silver market finds itself today.

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Gold Price Forecast – All Eyes on the Fed

All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve meeting this Wednesday at 2pm eastern time.

Why is the pending meeting so important?

Because the Fed is expected to announce the tapering of its $120 billion per month bond buying program, which began at the onset of the Coronavirus pandemic last year.

Exactly how much of a reduction in bond buying will the Fed announce?

We cannot be sure yet; however, the mainstream consensus is that a reduction of $10 – $20 billion per month for the coming 1 – 2 quarters is likely.

Bond Taper and Gold Price

It is important to remember that the US Federal Reserve has no actual reserves with which to buy bonds in the first place. Any “bond buying” is a euphemism for printing-money, or the electronic equivalent thereof.

Bond buying is thus inflationary, because the Fed creates money out of thin air with which to purchase the bonds, which subsequently suppresses interest rates below true market values.

A tapering from $120 billion per month, to, for example, $110 billion or $100 billion, is thus relatively less inflationary than if the Fed had kept its bond buying program at current levels.

Generally speaking, less inflation is seen as a negative for gold, and conversely, positive for the value of the US dollar.

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Gold is trading within a giant consolidation pattern. We will look for clues as per which direction the consolidation will eventually resolve based on two key trigger levels: a break above $1,917 would signal a continuation of the 2015 – 2020 bull market, whereas a failure at $1,610 would mean a multi-year bear market is still looming. What our analysis thus shows is that gold should be expected to trade within a nearly $300 range for the foreseeable future, with a much larger move pending within 12 – 18 months.

Let us examine the relevant resistance and support levels for more detail on the range of outcomes:

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Silver has been stuck within a rangebound consolidation between circa $22 and $30 for the better part of the last year. Unfortunately, we are now observing signs that silver may be set to decline back as low as the mid-$18 range, before it continues any higher. Two notable signals are lining up to suggest that lower silver prices are ahead.

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There is a big opportunity setting up in the silver market.

It should be no wonder: with global inflation reaching levels not seen in 13 years (source: https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/02/economy/inflation-oecd/index.html), markets are increasingly becoming concerned with ever-rising prices. It seems everywhere we look, prices for the things that we need to live (food, energy, housing) are increasing.

What is one way to protect oneself from rising inflation? By investing in tangible assets, which will at least keep pace with the inflation over the long run, and quite possibly outperform it.

What is one such tangible asset? The age-old form of money: silver.

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The US dollar is set to decline toward all-time lows against major foreign currencies by the middle of the decade.

The result of trillions of freshly-created dollars by the Federal Reserve for Coronavirus stimulus programs and bailouts is going to be felt primarily in the form of an inflationary tidal wave, i.e. a currency devaluation. As the world’s reserve currency, the US dollar devaluation will be felt all around the world. However, its impact will be especially noticeable here in the United States.

Both savers and investors should be positioning themselves now – ahead of the inflation – into real assets such as gold, silver, real estate, and commodities, for protection against the devaluation to come. Just as in a tsunami, if one waits until the wave is already being felt, it will be too late to avoid harm. The time to protect oneself from devaluation is now.

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Gold continues to trade weakly. The precious metal is down $13 for the month of March, $180 thus far in 2021, and some $374 since the all-time high of $2,074 was recorded in the spot market in August of last year.

That said, what is in store for the second quarter of 2021 and beyond?

While we do not have a crystal ball, we can make a high-probability assessment for where gold may bottom based on a study of where large buyers have emerged during recent years.

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What will be the result of this developing short squeeze?

While silver rising back to $50 again (the 2011 peak) and possibly beyond may fit in with our long-term expectations, let us focus on the intermediate-term projection for the pending squeeze that we can calculate based on observable data. For that, we turn to the charts.

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