iGold

Gold investors: the fourth turning is upon us.
Yes, that is right – a signal so rare, so powerful, and so ominous that it has appeared only three times in the last 130 years – has now shown itself.
And this signal portends to years of gains ahead for gold – and years of losses ahead for industrial stock (Dow, S&P 500) holders.
This signal is so significant that it will be the foremost tool to guide precious metals investors over the years ahead.
What is the signal?
It is the Dow to Gold Ratio – and it is making only its Fourth Turning of the last 130 years.

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The silver price has recorded its highest monthly close in 14 years at $36.05 for the month of June. The last time the price closed this high was July of 2011, when the precious metal notched a close of $39.23. Despite near-record prices, investor interest remains relatively low and we thus see no sign of a top. In this article, we will detail the relevant silver price action and what to expect going forward.

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Silver is within a long-term rising pattern. However, its shorter-term pattern has been violated following Trump’s tariffs, thus indicating that silver may not be ready for its next advance until the second half of 2025 or beyond. In this article, we will detail the silver price patterns that have formed over the last 10 years, and what their ramifications are for silver into 2025 – 2026.

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The gold miners have just broken out of a major five-year base. Significantly higher valuations lie in store over the next 6 – 18 months for most of the world’s gold miners. However, this move higher in the gold miners will not happen in a vacuum: gold itself will tag along for the ride, albeit in lesser percentage terms. For investors expecting a top in the gold market imminently – the charts suggest otherwise.

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The silver price is just a few percentage points away from a 13-year high, with the current spot silver hovering at $32.60 as this article goes to press. Silver prices have not been this high since 2012 – if silver closes out the month of March above $32.50, it will be the highest monthly close since November 2012.

With prices hovering near levels not seen for over a decade, one would logically think that interest in the silver market would be booming. However, this is not the case, and what we see is the exact opposite: interest in the silver market is currently at multi-year lows.

From a contrarian standpoint, this is a good thing, since it means the mainstream western investor is not participating in the silver market currently. When he does, it will signify a warning sign that a top may be approaching. For now, we are nowhere near this point, and we must thus conclude that silver has further room to advance over the months and possibly years ahead.

Let us examine the evidence.

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The gold price hit a new record high this week, rising up to $2,942 in the spot market on February 10. Gold is now up 11% for the new year, after rising over 27% in 2024.

After such a run, with gold just below the key $3,000 per ounce level, one might wonder if the market is close to forming a top.

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Gold has had quite a run for 2024, up over 25% year to date as this article is going to press in late-December. Will the advance continue in 2025? Or will the new year see a reversal for gold prices after 2024’s strong performance?

Gold Rising Trend Until Proven Otherwise

Gold is within a clear rising trend, which began at the 2022 low of $1,615 per ounce. According to the principles of technical analysis: “A rising trend is valid until proven otherwise.” In this article, we will examine the price levels which will show us that gold’s rising trend is still intact for 2025.

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Silver has just broken higher out of a short-term consolidation. This price behavior results in a target of $38.65, a 16% anticipated gain for silver over the months ahead. For investors seeking increased profit above this figure, silver miners have recently begun to provide positive leverage above and beyond the bullion price.

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No – the 5,000-year store of wealth is no longer a bargain. It was in 2015, but it is not today.

To state it simply: physical gold is not something that I would buy at present levels.

I consider myself a contrarian, and I do not buy assets that have moved aggressively higher as gold has done recently.

Instead, I buy assets when they are falling and are either unloved and ignored by the masses. This was gold in 2015. Congratulations to those of us who bought then.

However, gold is no longer a bargain and thus carries a significant amount of risk.

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The gold price has just recorded a new record all-time high: $2,483 in the spot market on the night of July 17, 2024. Although this new record is a welcome development for precious metals investors, just within the last week a new signal has developed which may spell trouble for investors. This signal could suggest a significant top to develop soon in the gold price, so investors should monitor this developing situation closely.

What is the troubling signal we are referring to?

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A once-per-four-year signal says silver is about to rapidly surge higher within the coming months, and should achieve a price target of $47 – $50 per ounce by the end of the third quarter 2024. Get ready!

While the Federal Reserve meets today and prices could be volatile following the interest rate decision, our pending surge signal is already in the books as of mid-May.

Wise investors should be finalizing their silver-related portfolios NOW, as the next wave of the advance should begin any week now.

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The gold price has just broken out to new all-time record highs. Not a single person who has ever purchased gold in the history of human civilization has ever lost money on their purchase (if they held through today).

One would think that investors would therefore feel positive about the gold price today.

Yet when we check sentiment indicators – no one seems to care.

This backdrop of record high prices amidst indifferent sentiment is the most bullish setup that current investors could possibly ask for.

Higher prices lie ahead – this is our conclusion. Hang on to find out why.

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Gold mining companies are historically undervalued compared to gold itself. While there are never any guarantees in the investment world, should gold indeed break out to new all-time highs in 2024, the potential exists for a tremendous revaluation higher for the gold mining companies, with gains vastly above and beyond those for gold itself. In this article, we will highlight the nature of the mining sector undervaluation, examine some of its causes, and look for upside potential should in fact the upward thesis play out.

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Following Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, the gold market is at a make-or-break moment: if key support at $1,885 can hold over the coming weeks, gold should be set to break to new all-time highs later this year or early 2024. However, if this key support fails, gold will likely not be breaking out until 2025 in the best case scenario. In a worst case scenario, a failure at $1,885 would imply that a long-term top is already in place for the sector.

Following a long-term top, years or even decades of lower gold prices would manifest. It is thus imperative for investors to follow these significant trends that are now being tested.

Let us examine the key support areas to define these tests in the gold market.

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How does gold perform during stock market crashes?

Gold has long been viewed as the “safe-haven asset” – one that can protect investors against the ravages of stock market crashes.

But does gold’s safe-haven reputation still hold up? Can gold actually protect your portfolio from a tumbling stock market? We turned to the data for an answer.

The above analysis shows the 10 biggest declines in the S&P 500 since 1970 and compares them with gold price movements during the same time. We used nominal data from Macrotrends and the World Gold Council.

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There is an ominous signal within the precious metals complex which warns that gold may form a significant multi-year top within the next 12 – 18 months. This does not mean one should abandon the sector altogether, as holding some gold is always prudent as an emergency hedge or portfolio insurance. However, the topping signal does suggest that investors should consider ways to mitigate downside risk going forward, as a decline of hundreds of dollars per ounce or more should be in store for mid-decade and beyond.

In the following article, we will discuss the negative signal now appearing and highlight ways to mitigate downside risk as an investor.

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Silver has just witnessed a rare false breakout. A false breakout is when a market overcomes a defined level of selling pressure, only to fail to hold above that level following a period of consolidation. The result after a false breakout is often lower prices; however, context is key, as the market should only be expected to fall to the next visible support level.

In this article we will highlight silver’s recent false breakout, the expected support level it should decline toward, and the price trajectory pending following the summer low.

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Following Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting and ¼ point interest rate hike, gold prices reached a new all-time record high: $2,079 in the spot market. This eclipses the previous record of $2,074 set in 2020 by $5 per ounce. While mainstream observers may not be paying attention to the message of the gold market, this new all-time high is a prelude for significantly higher prices to come. Gold is speaking loud and clear: there is trouble in the global economy.

Investors should be finalizing their precious metals portfolios now, because once gold has broken out to record territory, it will be too late to prudently enter the market. Investors seeking leverage to the gold price over the coming year should consider gold mining companies, which are significantly undervalued versus the metal itself.

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Gold is on the verge of new all-time highs. The metal of kings has already broken out to new all-time highs in many world currencies – the last yet most important will be gold as priced in US dollars.

On the heels of the 0.25% interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, yet amidst clear signals that the central bank is ready to print new money to support the financial system after the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, gold rose $30 or 1.5% to close at $1,970 per ounce in the spot market on Wednesday.

Let us observe gold as priced in several world currencies, so that we may gain a glimpse of what is in store for gold in US dollars over the months ahead.

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The silver price chart is as constructive as we could ask for in expectation of a rapid price appreciation starting in late-2023 and lasting through 2025. Upon a triggering of the current trading pattern, silver will target a price zone of $44 – $50 per ounce. Investors should use any price weakness over the coming months in either silver or high-quality silver miners to prepare for a rapid price appreciation starting later this year.

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Gold has staged an impressive recovery from its Q4 2022 lows of $1,615 per ounce: the precious metal is trading at $1,860, or 15.2% higher, as this article is going to press in early January. So impressive is the recovery that it has negated a bear-market signal which appeared last August, and instead flipped the 2023 – 2024 expectation decidedly higher. In this article, we will highlight the technical reversal which gold has registered, and discuss our forecast for gold in 2023.

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Gold and silver are in bear markets.

Why? The market-perceived reaction by the Federal Reserve to quash inflation by raising interest rates.

Whether or not the Fed is ever successful at bringing inflation down is immaterial – the market believes that the Fed will be successful, and the market is selling gold as a result. Those who disagree with the price action of the market itself will do so at their own peril over the coming years.

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The gold to silver ratio still suggests that gold will outperform silver over the coming months. Following the higher target for the ratio an important inflection point will materialize, which will represent the chance for silver to outperform gold once again. Until that time, we suggest that investors favor gold over silver for relative outperformance, and should wait for a major opportunity for silver to outperform gold again starting in 2023.

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What will be gold’s price target once it finally breaks above the 2020 – present resistance zone of $2,070 – $2,074?

In this instance, we will have a clear target calculation of $2,471 per ounce (green callout), which is defined as equal to the amplitude of the entire preceding consolidation ($397 per ounce), added onto the breakout point of $2,074.

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We have reason to believe that bitcoin and cryptocurrency investors are about to shift their investment strategy toward the precious metals, and that change should cause a notable influx of capital into the gold and silver sectors.

The trend in the ratio between bitcoin and gold has been rising steadily in bitcoin’s favor over the last 8 years – and it appears to be ready to break down in favor of gold again. As cryptocurrencies may be seen as competing “anti-fiat” alternatives to precious metals, this shift may represent an important current for the metals market.

In this article we will discuss the technical and fundamental setup which may cause cryptocurrency investors to soon become precious metals investors.

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