Gold has been weak in the last few days, breaking through our short-term uptrend of the last several months. We give our analysis for the potential lows coming into place over the next few months should the $1,075 August low fail to hold.
Since the false breakout one week ago, silver has been weaker as we predicted. The battle to break out of the downtrend continues… how much lower will it go before the next attempt?
Silver has been weaker since failing to break its 2-year downtrend on Wednesday. Gold is coming back into a high probability retest zone of its yearlong downtrend. How much lower should they fall before the precious metals attempt another breakout?
All the latest analysis on gold and silver price movements since the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.
In our previous article, we discussed the technical case for a significant long-term bottom now being put into place in the silver market, of magnitude comparable to the bottom we saw in late 2008, which led to a 400% rally in silver, and over 1,000% gains in many of the top-tier silver miners.
While we tend to focus on technical indicators in our analysis, the significance of such a pending rally in the precious metals forced us to take a step back and ask ourselves the question again: what are the fundamental drivers of such a pending move? What is actually going on amongst miners, scrappers, hedgers, jewelers, industrialists, and investors that is setting up for such a major revaluation of this historically monetary metal?
While we value studying charts and patterns — and indeed believe that all of the fundamental data that is known to the market (the sum of all participants in the sector) shows up in the charts (i.e. the current price) — we remain fundamental-based investors at heart. That is to say: we understand that fundamental drivers are what move the market over the long run.
So we took a step back and sought to refresh our perspective by looking at the long-term trends developing on both the supply and demand sides of the silver market.
Our review follows: we are more bullish than ever on silver prices and believe that the moves we have seen over the last 10 years are but a mere preview of the price level that is to come over the next decade.
A look at how today’s non-decision by the Federal Reserve impacted the precious metals and stock markets. Silver seems to be caught in the middle of its industrial and investment demand. Gold still working toward our $1,230 target while silver has just had a failure to break out of its downtrend today. There may be more moderate weakness for silver in the next few weeks.
What marks the bottom of a long bear market?
Seller exhaustion.
How does this look in the charts?
We show you.
A comparison of gold’s 50%+ correction during the Weimar hyperinflation to the correction still unfolding. What can we learn? Also updates on the latest action in gold and silver.
Our technical model is showing the completion of a downside capitulation signal for silver prices, indicating that a significant long term bottom is either already in place or will be finalized over the next several weeks across the silver market. Whether or not we see additional short-term weakness to the extent of a few dollars per ounce, the emergence from this pattern will represent a long term silver buy signal of similar magnitude to the one that occurred in November 2008, which saw silver rise over 400% within 2.5 years. Over the same timespan, certain silver miners saw gains well in excess of 1,000%.
We remain optimistic on silver due to fundamental supply/demand metrics, which include significant uptrends in investor demand since 2005 amidst mostly inelastic and stable industrial and jewelry demand. Such will be the topic for another article; in this feature, we focus on the technical side of the market and begin with an examination of our most important indicator: the relative strength ratio of the company Silver Wheaton (SLW) to silver bullion.
Continue reading the full article on Silver-Phoenix…
Gold is in the process of retesting its breakout from a multi-decade consolidation stretching back to 1980. The significance of such a retest cannot be understated: multi-decade consolidations usually lead to multi-decade advances, with targets many times the previous consolidation high. In percentage terms, gold has only just begun to move above its 1980 former all-time high, and for this reason, we believe it is critical for investors to view this market with sufficient historical perspective.
Multi-decade consolidations are a rare formation in the capital markets. By multi-decade consolidations, we are referring to markets in which an asset makes a specific price high, followed by at least two decades of price action below that high (the consolidation), followed by an eventual breakout above the high. In the case of the gold market, we are referring to the high made in 1980 at $850/ounce, followed by the 28-year consolidation below that high, until the breakout which finally exceeded $850 in 2008.
After oscillating above and below the $850 mark from 2008 through early 2009, gold prices finally took off for good in the fall of 2009, confirming the breakout. As we know, gold continued to accelerate into September of 2011, climbing to above $1,900. Since that time, the precious metal has been in a four year bear market, standing just above $1,140 as this article goes to press.
The critical piece of data in this chronicle is that the current four-year bear market has occurred entirely above the 1980 high. What this means is that this bear market represents a retest of the breakout from the former multi-decade consolidation.
Continue reading the full article on Gold-Eagle.com…
Gold breaks its short-term downtrend, and we explain our next target for higher prices ($1,240). Silver still waiting to break its 2-year downtrend, which may be only days away. Major long-term bottoms are indeed forming…
Important action in gold & silver this week: gold breaking its yearlong downtrend line, and silver still waiting to do so. What will we look for over the next week? If gold can hold this breakout, we give our target for the next move higher.
Gold and Silver are both attempting to overcome critical primary downtrends, hitting them perfectly in today’s strong action. What do we expect for the rest of the week? A failure at this juncture could represent another leg down to come.
A strong day today for gold and silver. How does this play in with the bottoming process that is underway? Long-term investors should try to time their purchases for the down legs. We show you what levels to watch for.
Today we focus on using indicators to buy gold for a better price. Let’s say you are on a monthly investment accumulation plan, having decided to buy $1,000 or $5,000 gold per month. Why not save yourself $30 or $50 per ounce by adjusting the timing of your buys a few days? Why not save yourself $2 or $3 for an ounce of silver? The technicals work, and they can save you serious money. We show you our last call here and how much it would have saved you.
Our weekly update on the price of gold and silver. Zooming in on the action in the precious metals this week… our projections show a chance for increased weakness over the course of the next few months. Bottoming signals are still developing on longer term charts. Also, we update our comparison analysis of gold vs. the gold miners, and silver vs. the silver miners.
A quick update on the action this week in gold and silver. It was a tumultuous week in the markets, with the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at historic lows. How did this impact gold and silver?
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Our analysis today features an in-depth look at the action in gold and silver. We show you exactly where we are looking for bottoms in both of these markets. The process of forming a bottom is one that will take time — we dispel the myths that many analysts proclaim that we are on the verge of a new high in these markets. At the same time, it is clear that a bottoming process is in play, and this would represent an excellent time for new investors to either accumulate or initiate positions. We show you what signs to watch out for in preparation for the next bull market in gold and silver prices.
Today we look at the performance of the gold mining industry in relation to the performance of gold itself. We look at the historical norms for the XAU/Gold ratio, and what the implications might be for markets going forward. We also demonstrate the power of relative strength analysis with examples from the crash of 2008, and how that applies to selecting the best gold mining stocks today.
Today we take a look at a long-term perspective of the gold market.
There is a rare and powerful pattern that occurs in markets after multi-decade consolidations followed by successful breakouts, and the gold market looks like it is setting up in this exact way. We give examples of markets that have followed this pattern in the past.
Finally, we give our analysis of price forecasts for the next several years.