iGold

The US stock market, having risen relentlessly since the crash of 2008, has for the first time in seven years closed on a weekly basis below its major rising trend channel. The significance of such a technical breakdown cannot be understated: broken multi-year trends signify exactly that — change in a market direction. In this case, the transition we are witnessing is from a bull market to a topping pattern. After a topping pattern, bear markets follow.
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Last week we looked at a methodology for identifying select equities that have the potential to rise thousands of percent after a market crash. The technical criteria involves finding a market sector that has undergone a severe Stage IV decline (stage analysis, see graph below) and then scanning for individual companies that are significantly outperforming during the final parts of the crash (relative strength). These are the companies showing signals similar to Amazon in 2008, which has risen 1,100% since the crash of that year.

We have evaluated hundreds of gold mining stocks, and bring to you here two of the strongest examples for consideration. These are the companies that are poised to provide tremendous gains once the price of gold and the HUI Index stabilize and begin uptrends.

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Gold mining is a tough business. It has been said that more people became wealthy during the California Gold Rush of 1848-49 by setting up supply shops and hotels to serve prospectors than by actually mining for gold. Indeed in the modern era, there are over a thousand companies involved in the production and exploration of gold ore throughout the world — yet a significant percentage will wind up bankrupt, either unable to find sufficient gold in the first place or even more frustrating, unable to bring their known gold to the surface for a profit.

So why bother with the gold mining business at all? Because for those few who do succeed in this business, the gains can be phenomenal. Companies that find a significant deposit of gold and then successfully mine it can see gains in excess of 1,000% over the course of a few years.

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On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve Board unanimously voted to raise interest rates for its overnight lending facility by 0.25%. This puts the target range set by the Central Bank to between 0.25 – 0.50%, with some leeway for rates to fluctuate within this zone.

The move was largely anticipated by the futures market, which began pricing in a near-certain interest rate hike in November. In theory, other world markets should not have reacted with much volatility following the decision, because the rate increase should have been priced in for related assets.

Yet interestingly, an analysis of major asset classes since the decision reveals some distinct price movements. While three days’ worth of trading certainly does not constitute a long-term trend, when viewed within the context of emerging patterns already present in major international markets, this type of analysis can provide valuable clues as to the developing shifts in underlying fundamentals.

Silver, seemingly forgotten after almost five years of declines, emerged as the leader after the rate decision, in major divergence with the rest of the commodity sector and even superior to the traditional safe-havens.

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There is much discussion in the financial press regarding the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 15-16 and the likelihood of an increase in the Federal Funds Rate, which has been held close to 0% by the Central Bank since the financial crisis of 2008. The futures market is currently pricing in a significant chance for a rate increase to between 0.25 – 0.50% at the upcoming meeting. This, in turn, has made precious metals investors increasingly nervous in recent weeks, as many have come to believe that rising interest rates mean gold and silver will fall, due to an expected move higher for the US Dollar after the rate hike.

It is time to dispel this myth once and for all. Indeed, in 70 years of publicly available data from the Federal Reserve Board itself, we can very clearly see that rising short-term interest rates correspond to rising precious metals prices. Both recent examples and historic trends will illustrate this point.

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It is fairly common knowledge that the gold mining  industry has been one of the worst performing sectors in the capital markets over the last five years. From major established gold producers such as Harmony Gold Mining and Kinross falling to under $2 per share amidst doubts about their ability to service debt, to the bankruptcy or fire-sale takeover of countless junior exploration companies — the decline in gold prices over the last few years has spared few victims in the mining world.

Numerous fundamental reasons have been offered to explain the severity of the decline. Rising cash costs, an inability to finance exploration at favorable rates, and fears of mine nationalization have all been raised as reasons for the brutal bear market. While we can see merit to each possibility, as fundamental-based technicians we would rather let the market show us its opinion as opposed to trying to pinpoint a single scapegoat.

Given that we expect a historic low to be forming in gold over the course of the next 6-12 months (LINK: http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-forecast-final-low-targets-bear-market), it seems appropriate to revisit the gold mining sector at this juncture to have a glimpse of what might be the fate of the surviving companies that actually dig the precious metal out of the ground.

Our analysis shows that a significant revaluation in this sector is due to begin over the course of the next 12-18 months. There are historical precedents for individual companies to see gains well in excess of 1,000% during these types of revaluations. Because even a small allocation of one’s portfolio to this thesis can have a tremendous wealth-building effect, we present the case here.

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In our previous article covering the long-term gold forecast, we made the case that the breakout in gold from the 1980 – 2009 consolidation below $850/ounce represents an extremely rare and powerful pattern in the commodity markets, a move that is likely to lead to decades of gains once the current bear market is over.

Given the recent weakness in the price of gold, we thought it a good time to update readers on our expectations for the final low of the current bear market. There is a confluence of no less than five important support levels between $850 and $1,033/oz. that we believe should provide support for the price of gold should further weakness develop over the months ahead. Such a final low would represent the best entry point for gold investors who have been waiting on the sidelines for prices to begin trending higher again.

The Power of Multiple Support Levels

In our technical studies, when a single support level exists for a market, we will often say simply that support exists at that specific price point. When two support levels come in near the same region, we will say that this represents strong support at that area. And when three separate support levels exist in the same vicinity, that represents an extremely strong level of support.

On our 15-year gold chart, there now exist five separate support levels currently within a swath of roughly $180. This represents an immense level of buying power which should enter the gold market within this region. While the range may be too large for short-term traders to use in timing, for long-term investors who agree with our thesis that prices may eventually reach a multiple of the 2011 $1,917 high, any purchases in this band of support should represent an excellent long-term accumulation point.

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