iGold

The short-term forecast for gold is clear: the metal is set to move higher. Gold has just put in an intermediate low at $1,238 per ounce as of July 3, 2018. Several leading indicators point to an imminent recovery in prices over the next 1-3 months.

However, the longer-term picture for the precious metal is mixed: gold must overcome its 2016 high at $1,378 within the next six months to avoid a significantly bearish outcome that could result in a multi-year decline following such a failure.

The time to closely monitor gold’s price action for one of these scenarios is now.

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Gold is in a primary recovery pattern as it attempts to break above its 2016 peak of $1,378 per ounce. This recovery pattern appears over and over again throughout history – the success or failure of gold to maintain the structure of this pattern will pave the way for either a massive multi-year advance higher in the sector, or a grinding decline to last for the majority of the next decade.

We will have the answer to the question of which outcome to expect within the next 12-18 months.

It will behoove precious metals investors to pay close attention to the technical action and to tune out misleading rhetoric coming from both perma-bulls and perma-bears of gold and the precious metals sector.

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Gold miners, the companies which extract the element from the Earth which has served as the backbone of the global economic system since the dawn of civilization, remain historically undervalued across two key metrics that are used to value the sector. Opportunity for profit exists for those with patience for the sector to revert to the mean.

First, gold companies are undervalued versus the broader US economy: a ratio of gold mining versus the S&P500 index is at its lowest valuation of all time. Secondly and perhaps more interestingly, gold miners remain undervalued relative to the price of the actual metal they produce: gold itself.

As contrarians, these are statistics we should pay attention to. Let us examine the charts.

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