Gold & Silver Price Update – Coronavirus – Stock Market Crash?
The coronavirus has rapidly taken center stage in world affairs over just the last month. With its terrible human casualties comes a nasty financial side effect: deflation.
The US stock market has just witnessed its worst weekly decline (-11%) since the Crash of 2008.
Oil prices fell more in a single day on Monday, March 9 (-33%) than on any other day in the post-Bretton Woods (1971) era.
Meanwhile, gold prices have touched 6-year highs above $1,700 this week.
This is deflation, loud and clear. Deflation can be defined as a period when the prices of goods and services fall; conversely, during deflation, the purchasing power of money rises.
Gold is the world’s oldest store of value – as such, it should rise increase in value during deflation when compared to other assets.
So, is now a good time to buy gold?
With the newsworthy events of the last few weeks including the assassination of Iranian general Soleimani, retaliatory missile attacks against US forces in Iraq, and now the coronavirus, gold has just broken all-time records for volume on the world’s futures exchanges. Clearly, gold is a market which is gaining interest and momentum at this very moment.
Yet what exactly does volume really tell us? Is all-time record high volume a good sign or a bad omen for the future of gold?
Let us examine these questions and more in this gold price update.
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We are starting to get a stronger sense of what will be causing 2020’s advance in gold and silver: weakness in the US dollar and a concurrent inflationary spike in the entire commodity sector.
Gold and silver sometimes act on their own, independent of what is happening to the broader commodity world. However, at other points gold and silver will get pulled together with the rest of the resource sector – this is what is about to occur in the precious metals world.
The market does not need the Fed to intervene in the repo market, nor in any market for that matter. If lending in the repo market has gotten tight, there is a reason for that: lenders are cautious due to dubious fundamentals within the wider economy. The idea that the Fed should act to supersede the independent decision-making of individual institutions involved in the repo market is one that leads to a slippery slope of moral dilemma as problems grow larger and larger.
Not only did the Fed outline a new $425 billion “liquidity” program this week, it also promised to print more money by buying short-term US Treasury bonds if financing pressures required such. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated explicitly:
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Gold saw a huge sell-off last week: the precious metal was down by $49 or 3.2% to close at $1,463 as of the final trade on the New York COMEX on Friday afternoon.
During declines as we witnessed last week, it can be helpful to remember the big picture: gold broke out of a six-year basing pattern below $1,434 per ounce last August. After six years of grinding prices before then, it is unlikely that the final top is in yet after a single one-month surge above the resistance zone.
What we are witnessing now is a retest of the breakout. A retest is simply a term which describes behavior in which the market is literally asking former buyers: “Are you sure you meant to buy back then?”
Once the retest is complete, higher targets are expected:
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