The Federal Reserve is on the verge of a credibility problem: the market does not believe the central bank at its word.

Let us rewind: at the January 30, 2019 Fed meeting, the central bank wavered on its 2015 – 2018 interest rate hike campaign and began to hint that it would at least pause for the intermediate-term on further increases. This was a significant departure from the 2015 – 2018 period, which saw rates rise from zero to the present 2.25% – 2.50% in three years.

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