iGold

From the panic low of the Coronavirus scare last March when silver bottomed at $11.30 to its inflation-induced peak at $29.82 in August, silver prices rose an incredible 163% during 2020 in less than five months. Yet as this article is going to press the day of the US inauguration, silver is trading just above $25.50 per ounce. In other words, since the August peak, silver has done nothing but fall by 15% over the last five months.

So what is ahead for silver as 2021 gets underway? Was the advance of the first half of 2020 a sign of things to come? Or is silver set to continue declining as it has done since the peak last August?

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As precious metals investors, it can sometimes be difficult to tell whether major world events are positive or negative for the prices of gold and silver.

However, a repeating pattern is now playing out in the gold market – a pattern which also appeared once before, nearly 10 years ago – which suggests that recent world events will be highly supportive for gold prices in the future.

Let us examine these world events and then turn to our expectations for gold prices in 2021 and beyond.

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Gold prices continue to correct from the new all-time high set on August 6, 2020. On that date, gold hit $2,074 per ounce – the highest cost to purchase one ounce of gold in the history of mankind. Since that point, gold has corrected some $226 or 10.9% to the recent low of $1,848 on September 28.

What is next for the price of gold? Has this been a major long-term top, or is there more upside to come?

Our analysis suggests the later – that gold is about to embark on a major new up-leg which should take it well above the recent $2,074 high.

Further, the timing of this next advance may be sooner than most people expect… perhaps as soon as weeks following the US election on November 3.

The time to prepare for this investment scenario is now.

Gold is Retesting Its Former All-Time High

It is critical that investors grasp the big picture for gold: the 5,000-year store of wealth is presently retesting its former 2011 all-time high resistance zone:

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Silver rose nearly 163% from its Coronavirus-panic lows of $11.30 to its peak on August 6 of $29.82. However, following that incredible rise, silver has since fallen dramatically: from its August 6 peak down to its September 23 low of $21.64 is a drop of nearly 28% in just six weeks. As this article is going to press, the precious metal is trading in the middle region of that range at $24.50.

What is ahead for silver? Is this sell-off over, or is there more downside to come?

Our analysis suggests that silver is within the midst of a wide and volatile consolidation that will resolve upward within the next several months. Keep reading to learn why we expect silver to move above $30 per ounce into 2021.

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After surging to a new all-time high of $2,074 in August of this year, gold has since come back to $1,848 for a low in late September. The precious metal is currently trading at $1,890 spot.

Retests of former all-time highs are common in the capital markets. The market is daring buyers to step back in and purchase where they did several months ago. The bias for this scenario is that buyers will once again present themselves as they did in August.

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Gold has just broken out to a new all-time high, eclipsing the former peak of $1,920 set on September 6, 2011. As this article is going to press, gold is trading at $1,983 in the worldwide spot market.

This is a huge moment for gold. All-time highs do not occur every day, nor every year, nor even every decade for the historic store of wealth.

What now? Will gold make a second long-term peak as it did in 2011 and enter another multi-year decline? Or is there a sustainable bull market ahead?

In this article, we will examine the historical precedents for gold as it has broken former all-time highs, and then calculate realistic expectations for the price of gold over the next year based on an observable price pattern

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The gold mining complex is breaking out of a large and powerful pattern which suggests years of gains and hundreds of percentage points lie ahead for investors. For those who possess the proper risk tolerance for this type of investing, the time to get involved is now.

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Gold is testing strong overhead resistance just above the $1,800 level. How gold behaves now and over the next several weeks will determine its trajectory for at least the next 18 months.

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Silver is facing make-or-break resistance at $18.60 spot, a figure which will determine the metal’s outlook for the next 12 – 24 months.

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For the year, gold is up $213 or 14% to close at $1,737 per ounce as this article is going to press.

What about the “other” precious metal – gold’s cousin – silver?

For the year, silver is down $0.27 cents or 1.5% to $17.65.

A disappointing performance, no doubt.

Is the pain soon to end for silver investors? Will this be the time that silver finally follows gold and heads higher? Or is more languishing ahead?

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Amidst the S&P 500’s 4.6% sell-off to close the week following the Federal Reserve’s policy decision last Wednesday, which asset was the primary beneficiary? We take a close look.

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Gold has been strong recently on the heels of Coronavirus fears, Federal Reserve stimulus packages, and continued geopolitical tensions, which are now being exacerbated by the George Floyd riots in the United States.

Gold is up by $57 for the month of May to close at $1,731 in the spot market as of Friday afternoon. The metal is higher by $155 for the quarter thus far and $228 for the year 2020, which is not yet half over.

That said, in the markets as in life, nothing moves in a straight line forever. We have reason to believe that following some further gains during the month of June, gold is due for a multi-hundred dollar pullback that could coincide with the next wave of Coronavirus-related debt defaults.

Let us study both the long-term and short-term price action for gold to arrive at the highest-probability trajectory for the remainder of 2020.

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A signal has just appeared in the global financial markets which has only been witnessed one other time in recorded history – and it foretells of immense trouble for the world economy ahead.

What is the signal?

The gold to silver ratio – it has just shattered its former all-time highs.

When is the only other time in history that the gold to silver ratio has broken out to a new all-time high?

At the start of the Great Depression, in 1930.

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While those without any precious metals exposure whatsoever would be wise to establish a core holding as an insurance policy against unprecedented central bank monetary debasement, there are important warning signs appearing within the market which show us that precious metals may be due for a significant retracement of the recent gains. It is possible that the retracement may start following one final surge; however, our highest expectation remains that gold is due to give back at least several hundred dollars of its recent advance within the coming year. Investors should be careful about chasing recent price gains.

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We are starting to get a stronger sense of what will be causing 2020’s advance in gold and silver: weakness in the US dollar and a concurrent inflationary spike in the entire commodity sector.

Gold and silver sometimes act on their own, independent of what is happening to the broader commodity world. However, at other points gold and silver will get pulled together with the rest of the resource sector – this is what is about to occur in the precious metals world.

The market does not need the Fed to intervene in the repo market, nor in any market for that matter. If lending in the repo market has gotten tight, there is a reason for that: lenders are cautious due to dubious fundamentals within the wider economy. The idea that the Fed should act to supersede the independent decision-making of individual institutions involved in the repo market is one that leads to a slippery slope of moral dilemma as problems grow larger and larger.

Not only did the Fed outline a new $425 billion “liquidity” program this week, it also promised to print more money by buying short-term US Treasury bonds if financing pressures required such. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated explicitly:

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Gold saw a huge sell-off last week: the precious metal was down by $49 or 3.2% to close at $1,463 as of the final trade on the New York COMEX on Friday afternoon.

During declines as we witnessed last week, it can be helpful to remember the big picture: gold broke out of a six-year basing pattern below $1,434 per ounce last August. After six years of grinding prices before then, it is unlikely that the final top is in yet after a single one-month surge above the resistance zone.

What we are witnessing now is a retest of the breakout. A retest is simply a term which describes behavior in which the market is literally asking former buyers: “Are you sure you meant to buy back then?”

Once the retest is complete, higher targets are expected:

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The precious metals are on the verge of flashing a signal that has only appeared three other times in the last twenty years. While the signal will be positive for all of the precious metals, it is silver that looks set to shine the brightest over the next several months.

Investors should carefully consider whether they have a proper allocation to the silver sector at this time.

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Silver has been the laggard of the precious metals sector as of late: while gold has just broken above its 2016 high of $1,378 on the heels of trade war tensions and the possibility that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates this year, silver has barely budged.

Year-to-date, silver is down 3.5% to $15.00 per troy ounce as of the end of the week. Meanwhile, gold is higher by 9.3% or $119 for the year, to $1,400.

What are we to make of this continued underperformance by silver? Is it a sign that the move in gold is suspect and should not be trusted? Or is it a sign that we are simply in the early stages of a new bull market?

Let us examine the present period in silver prices, the modern history of the gold to silver ratio, and what this might mean for silver investors going forward.

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The Federal Reserve is on the verge of a credibility problem: the market does not believe the central bank at its word.

Let us rewind: at the January 30, 2019 Fed meeting, the central bank wavered on its 2015 – 2018 interest rate hike campaign and began to hint that it would at least pause for the intermediate-term on further increases. This was a significant departure from the 2015 – 2018 period, which saw rates rise from zero to the present 2.25% – 2.50% in three years.

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The gold price has been strong recently, having risen over $180 from the August 2018 low of $1,167 to the peak above $1,347 as of last week.

There have been solid fundamental reasons for gold’s run: primarily, the Federal Reserve last month hinted that it may not continue raising interest rates, as it had been assuring it would over the past three years. Such in turn has been considered a sign that the Fed may in fact reverse course and begin cutting rates later this year, which is generally considered negative for the value of the dollar and positive for precious metals.

However, are these fundamentals enough to keep bullion’s run alive? Will this market narrative continue going forward?

A Rare Warning Signal

Despite the recent performance, one of our proprietary technical indicators is flashing a major warning signal for those who follow the language of the charts. Specifically, gold is showing a sell signal witnessed only four times over the past eight years. This warning signal coincided exactly with the absolute peak in gold at $1,923 in September, 2011. This same signal appeared again in January 2013, immediately before gold fell $500 from $1,680 down to $1,180 over just six months.

So reliable has this signal been, that it has never occurred without gold falling at least $130 over the subsequent six months.

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Walls have been in the news a lot lately. Walls which may be built, walls which may not be built.

Yet for all the talk of walls these days, there is one wall that precious metals investors should be focusing on foremost. And no, it has nothing to do with the southern US border.

Instead, the barrier we are referring to is the wall of sellers who will be showing up in the precious metals as gold approaches $1,300 per ounce.

What are we referring to, specifically?

Let us examine the visible data.

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What is next for both the stock market and gold? Is now the time to buy gold for protection against a stock market crash?

Let us evaluate the structure of both these markets and discuss protection strategies.

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Silver has enjoyed a modest recovery over the past six weeks, rising from a low of $14.00 in September to $14.70 as this article is being written. What is in store for this dual precious and industrial metal as 2018 closes out? Is there more upside to come or will the downward trend of lower prices from last summer re-exert itself?

Over the next several weeks, we see higher prices in store for silver. However, once this rally concludes, another down-leg should begin for gold’s cousin. Investors should monitor these trends closely as they develop and be prepared for a better buying opportunity early next year.

Let us turn to the visible data.

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There is a fallacy now spreading throughout the precious metals world, and gold investors who believe it to be true will be making a costly mistake when attempting to navigate the volatility in this market over the next several years.

What is the fallacy we are referring to?

Gold’s Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, and the claim of the bullish setup that is being purported on account of the net long position by commercial traders and net short position by large speculators.

Indeed, not a week goes by that we do not see articles published claiming that this myth is in fact true. We will not name any names here in this article, because the fallacy is nearly universally believed, and a quick Google search for “Gold COT report” will reveal dozens of such misleading articles. The time has come to set the record straight.

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Gold has had a rough several months. The precious metal is down some $170 from its peak in April near $1,370, closing today just below $1,200 on the New York COMEX futures market. As we indicated in our last article, gold has failed to maintain the structure that would be indicative of a bull market in progress. That said, no market moves in a straight line, and a reversal will be in store at some point. What are some price projections as gold heads lower over the coming months where we may look to see support emerge?

There are a number of ways to estimate price targets for gold. Established support and resistance zones, Fibonacci retracements, and trend channels are just a few. However, for this article let us focus on a powerful way to gauge the potential for future gold prices – and that is: what the mining complex is expecting.

Miners Gold Price Expectations

Gold mining profits are leveraged to the underlying metal price. When the price of gold rises by 1%, gold miner profits typically rise by 2% – 3%, as the underlying costs to mine the metal remain relatively fixed. The same leverage works to the downside of course. The bottom line is that investors in the gold mining sector should have a solid idea of what the price of gold itself is going to do, as the price is a critical determinant of operational success.

That said, let us examine the figures that the gold miners are now pricing in for their own product. This can be a valuable form of analysis to use any time one is preparing to make a sizeable gold purchase.

Below we show the GDX large-cap gold miners fund on top, with the price of gold immediately below it. The GDX contains an average of approximately 50 different mining operations. Let us examine the relative valuations of the two since late-2015:

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