We are now preparing for what should be the final retracement in the gold price before 2016 highs are exceeded for good. The degree to which this retracement gives back recent gains is open to some variability, but the highest probability assessment is that gold will find support over the next 1-3 months within the $1,295 – $1,305 range. The subsequent advance should take prices above the 2016 peak at $1,378 en route to $1,400+ later this year and $1,500 by early 2019.
We expect a correction in gold will now unfold due to the important support zone that is being tested for the US dollar, which should lead to a multi-month rally for the US currency. As a backdrop, investors should recall that typically (but not always) the gold price and the US dollar move in opposite directions. We can observe this inverse relationship with an examination of the two asset classes over recent months: